Flood Watch into Thursday morning

July 19, 2023

Jessica Blum,

An incredible amount of water in a very short duration, resulting in catastrophic flooding for many. The highest rainfall totals were seen across far western Kentucky, through much of Graves and surrounding counties. Here’s a look at the highest totals we’ve seen through 5 p.m. Wednesday.

A Flood Watch will go into effect midnight tonight through Thursday morning. Because of the excessive amount of rain the area has already seen, this has been posted for additional rain that is possible to add to those amounts heading into the first half of Thursday.

Ground conditions are currently susceptible to additional flooding with localized amounts up to another 1″ possible overnight.

The Weather Prediction Center has Cape Girardeau and much of western Kentucky in the moderate category for the flood risk going into Thursday. When trying to travel on many of the roads in these areas that have seen damage and could see further flooding: Turn around, don’t drown. It takes 6 inches to sweep a person off their feet, and it takes just 12 inches to sweep a car away.

Models through noon Thursday show anywhere from a quarter to half an inch possible over a widespread area, with localized spots of another 1″ or so possible. This will be something to watch closely as much of western Kentucky saw flash flood emergencies because of recent rains.

Toward the hours leading up to the morning commute, additional thunderstorms will be possible. These storms should wrap up by midday, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for a storm or two to become severe.

With the record rainfall seen in many spots, the Skeeter Meter will stay in the “Ugh” category with humidity and standing water all contributing. We should see some drier conditions as a front moves through Friday, but conditions will still favor a “High” Skeeter Meter because of the soaked soils.

The break in the rain looks to arrive by this weekend, with warmer temperatures heading into next week. We’ll see our pattern finally shift out of almost daily thunderstorm chances to a dry and hot setup come especially Tuesday and Wednesday, farther out in the forecast.