Heavy rainfall, strong storms possible into Monday

August 13, 2023

Jessica Blum,

Most of our concern at this point is for late Sunday into Monday. There is a threat for storms to continually rake over the same areas, with flooding a good possibility. The timing of these storms looks to come after sunset, generally through daybreak on Monday.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky through 10 a.m. Monday.

Very saturated soils are already the case, with those spots being all the more vulnerable to flash flooding through training thunderstorms overnight. Rainfall totals may be over 2-3″ in some areas. The Weather Prediction Center has extended the Moderate category outlook for excessive rainfall possible through 7 a.m. Monday.

Latest model runs show much of the area has a good shot of at least seeing over 1″ or so, but the concern is there for flash flooding with this event, too.

As for the severe risk overnight, most of our area is under a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk, with far western SEMO under an Enhanced (Level 3) risk through Monday morning. A few thunderstorms could be severe late this afternoon through tonight. Damaging winds, large hail and a brief tornado are all possible.

But the more concerning threat is the heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding through this timeframe. Stormcast shows storms moving in by about 2 a.m. or so, lasting overnight and coming to an end around 8/9 a.m.

After Monday, we’ll take a much-needed break from precipitation and thunderstorms for a while. Cooler on Tuesday, but warming right back up by next weekend.