Severe threat for Monday, January 2-3, 2023

A level 3 Enhanced Risk (dark brown) is in place for SE Missouri and western Tennessee for storms tonight. We are on the very northern edge of this threat. Our entire area is in a Level 1 Marginal Risk (green), Level 2 Slight Risk (yellow), or the Level 3 Enhanced Risk (brown). Overall, the further north you go, the less of a chance you have at seeing severe weather. Further south will have the higher severe potential.

2022 Kbsi

An upper-level disturbance will continue to approach as the night wears on, which could make the environment a bit more conducive for stronger thunderstorms Monday night. Since we may be dealing with a nocturnal severe weather threat, so you’ll want to make sure you have a way to receive weather notifications even if you’re sleeping.

At this time, it appears that wind is the main concern, although we cannot rule out some isolated tornadoes. The overall severe weather threat decreases the farther north you travel.

Mb Severe Storm Threat Assessment 4 Categories Kbsi

Strong storms are going to be possible during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight in SE Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and NW Tennessee. All forms will be possible including heavy rain, frequent lightning, flooding, hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes.


We have a low end risk for isolated tornadoes tonight. As storms evolve and move through our area, isolated spin ups may be possible.


The threat for hail is minimal, but a few reports of quarter size hail is possible tonight and then again overnight.


The highest potential tonight and overnight is for damaging wind. This will likely be the main threat with storms that move through.

Latest 4km Graf Precipitation Accum

Along with all of the severe weather threats, heavy rain is likely. Some areas may see well over 2″ of rainfall through Tuesday morning.

Flood Watch

A Flood Watch is in place for the heavy rain potential. This is active through Tuesday morning.

Storm Alert Team Chief Meteorologist
Rusty Dawkins


Categories: Weather